Storm Watch

A few years ago, I wowed the guys in my husband’s football pool by picking winning teams for an entire season.  I had The Perfect Season (with all due respect to the ‘72 Dolphins).  The guys were wowed not by my insightful analysis of the teams, talent and statistics, but because I managed to pick winners having little knowledge (and little interest) in football.  I’d go with team colors, a love for their home cities, and sometimes I’d just throw out an answer to get back to more interesting activities.
That perfect season, I earned a title.  They called me Swami.

And with that accomplishment on my resume, I’d like to make my predictions for Hurricane Season 2008.

Dr. William Gray issued his this week. The preeminent forecaster and science professor at Colorado State University has been prognosticating numbers and intensities of Atlantic hurricanes for a quarter century, based on years of experience and critical analysis of atmospheric conditions.
Mine are total guesswork.

Dr. Gray’s predictions are anxiously awaited, then picked up and reported by news outlets around the nation.

Mine will be confined to this page.

Dr. Gray typically revises his predictions midway through the seasons; in the last few years he has downgraded the numbers after a few storm-lite months.  Isn’t that like revising a bet as the horses head into the home stretch, or the fourth quarter of a football game gets underway? 

Anyway, as the experts say, hurricane predictions should have no bearing on the importance of preparedness.  
So on with my unscientific experiment to see how a guess stacks up to statistical analysis, as in that Season of the Swami.
Dr. Gray predicts 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, with four of them becoming “major”, Category 3-to-5.  

I’m going with 12 named storms (up to the “L” name), six hurricanes, and two that reach Category 4 or 5.

I won’t be revising, so we’ll see how it all tallies on November 30th.

By the way, I was only Swami for one season.


One Response

  1. It is nice to have some calm and tranquillity once and awhile regards to storm season so your comments are a welcome change to the usual and expected scare tactics of the local media outlets who choose to strike fear into local residents as to the odds of their homes and lives being blown away once again, during storm season. What with the Dr. Gray forecasts and the local weather types starting months ahead of June 1 to warn us that doom and destruction are not so far off, your comments give us just a touch of ‘calm’ prior to the storms and that is nice.

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